Canada's Cybersecurity Outlook

Key Insights from the National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–2026

The National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–2026 (NCTA) from the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security outlines a stark reality: Canada is on the frontline of a rapidly evolving cyber battlefield. State-sponsored adversaries, cybercriminal groups, and hacktivists are targeting critical infrastructure, government, businesses, and individual Canadians at unprecedented speed and scale.

This report highlights the most pressing cybersecurity threats to Canada in 2025 and 2026, including state-sponsored espionage, ransomware, AI-driven attacks, and vulnerabilities in cloud and vendor ecosystems.

State-Sponsored Aggression and Espionage

• China (PRC): The most sophisticated state cyber threat targeting Canada. Operations focus on espionage, intellectual property theft, political influence, and transnational repression. Pre-positioning attacks like Volt Typhoon against U.S. critical infrastructure highlight risks to Canada due to interconnected systems.

• Russia: Uses cyberattacks alongside disinformation campaigns, supply chain compromises, and OT (operational technology) disruption attempts. The Midnight Blizzard hack of Microsoft exposed Canadian officials, underlining Russia’s reach.

• Iran: Deploys cyber programs for coercion, harassment, and espionage, including phishing campaigns targeting Canadian activists.

• North Korea (DPRK): Focuses on cybercrime and cryptocurrency theft to fund state objectives.

Key Insight: Canada’s geopolitical alliances and economic strengths make it a top target for nation-state cyber activity.

Cybercrime: Canada’s Most Disruptive Threat

The NCTA confirms cybercrime remains the most pervasive risk to Canadians, driven by the Cybercrime-as-a-Service (CaaS) economy.

• Phishing & Fraud: Enhanced by AI chatbots, making scams harder to detect.

• Ransomware: The #1 cybercrime threat to Canadian infrastructure. Tactics now include:

  • “Big-game hunting” targeting critical organizations.

  • Extortion escalations (countdown timers, public leaks, calling clients directly)

  • Exploiting incident reporting rules to pressure payments

• Affiliate Fragmentation: Ransomware groups splintering and adapting with new obfuscation techniques.

Key Insight: Ransomware and fraud will continue to impact Canadian businesses, municipalities, and individuals at scale.

Emerging Cyber Trends for 2025–2026

The NCTA identifies five critical trends reshaping Canada’s cyber threat environment:

1. AI-Powered Attacks – Deepfakes, phishing, and disinformation campaigns amplified by AI.

2. Stealth Tactics – “Living off the land (LOTL)” attacks, targeting edge devices, reducing dwell time.

3. Hacktivist Unpredictability – DDoS and defacement campaigns tied to global conflicts.

4. Vendor Concentration Risks – Dependence on major providers like Microsoft creates systemic single points of failure.

5. Dual-Use Services in the Crossfire – Attacks on commercial services that support both civilian and military use, risking cascading disruption.

Key Insight: These trends show that cyber adversaries are adapting faster than defenses, requiring smarter, AI-enabled responses.

Building Canada’s Cyber Resilience

The National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–2026 sends a clear message: cyber threats are persistent, evolving, and deeply intertwined with geopolitics.

To defend against these threats, Canada must:

• Strengthen public–private partnerships.

• Invest in AI-enabled cyber defense.

• Improve critical infrastructure resilience.

• Enhance awareness and training for Canadians.

A strong cybersecurity program is not just a defensive measure, it is a business enabler that builds trust, protects reputation, and ensures operational continuity.

For organizations looking to assess and modernize their cybersecurity posture, Brockton Point Solutions can help you turn security into a strategic advantage. Contact us today to build resilience and unlock the full potential of your business in a rapidly evolving digital world.